Despite growing passenger numbers, improving efficiency could reduce CO2 emissions from UK aviation to 2000 levels by 2050, according to a report from Sustainable Aviation.
The UK environmental aviation organisation calculates that improved efficiencies as a result of airframe design, engine technology, low-carbon fuels and better air traffic control will mean a fall in emissions despite a projected three-fold increase in passenger numbers.
However, the projections indicate that emissions will continue to rise until 2020 when Sustainable Aviation expects the deployment of low carbon alternative fuels to begin in earnest.
Switching to low carbon fuels is expected to deliver a 10% cut in emission after 2030. In the meantime, improved air traffic control will reduce emissions by 10% over the next decade.
Airframe and engine design represent the biggest area of potential savings, which the Sustainable Aviation report puts at 62%.
“Aviation in the UK can be sustainable environmentally as well as economically,” says Ian Godden, chief executive of the Society of British Aerospace Companies.
“New technology, more efficient operations and an increasing contribution from sustainable non-fossil fuels can ensure that the industry’s proud track record on fuel efficiency is maintained and extended,” he adds.
The report does not include any contribution to CO2 reductions from participation in cap and trade schemes, such as the European Union’s Emissions Trading Scheme, which will include aviation.